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NITI Aayog’s end-of-life vehicle projections show that India is moving toward a much larger vehicle-retirement challenge. According to NITI Aayog’s 2026 report on circular economy and ELVs, India had around 10 million end-of-life vehicles in 2020, was expected to reach nearly 23 million by the end of 2025, and is projected to move close to 50 million ELVs by 2030.
The main point is simple: India can no longer depend on informal scrapping for such a large volume of aging vehicles. The country needs a formal system where ELVs are identified, processed through Registered Vehicle Scrapping Facilities, safely dismantled, and closed with proper certificates.
Mariinox fits into this ecosystem as a privately owned vehicle-scrapping brand that manages and operates a network of RVSFs authorised under the Motor Vehicles (Registration and Functions of Vehicle Scrapping Facility) Rules, 2021. The authorisation applies to the RVSFs in the network, while Mariinox helps vehicle owners navigate the process in a more structured way.
NITI Aayog’s ELV projection refers to the expected growth in the number of vehicles in India that may reach end-of-life status because they are unfit, no longer validly registered, declared scrap, damaged beyond economic repair, or otherwise eligible for scrapping.
The headline projection is that India’s cumulative ELV stock may rise from around 10 million in 2020 to nearly 23 million by 2025 and close to 50 million by 2030.
These are projections, not a live vehicle count. They should be read as planning estimates that highlight the scale of infrastructure, awareness, testing, and RVSF capacity India will need.
The NITI Aayog report makes one thing clear: India’s old vehicle problem is moving from scattered individual cases to a national-scale circular economy issue.
The report says India adds over 20 million vehicles to its road network every year, which directly contributes to the growing volume of ELVs.
That creates pressure on four areas:
Older and unfit vehicles can become harder to operate and control.
Older emission-standard vehicles may have a much higher pollutant load than newer BS-VI vehicles. The NITI report notes that emissions from older vehicles are significantly more polluting and says a BS-I vehicle may pollute up to eight times more than a BS-VI vehicle.
ELVs contain steel, aluminum, plastic, glass, tyres, rubber, used oils, batteries, and hazardous components.
Old vehicles are not only waste. They are also a source of secondary materials. NITI Aayog estimates that around 98 million tonnes of steel may be recovered from vehicles manufactured between 2005 and 2023, potentially saving 43 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
This is why vehicle scrapping is no longer just about “kabaadi value.” It is becoming part of India’s circular economy and resource-efficiency strategy.
Many vehicle owners still think the easiest option is to sell the old vehicle to a local scrap buyer.
That may feel quick, but it can create serious gaps.
NITI Aayog highlights that India’s ELV ecosystem faces challenges such as underutilised or limited RVSF infrastructure, complex deregistration procedures, low public awareness, and the continued presence of an informal scrapping sector.
Informal scrapping can create problems such as:
The rising ELV count also explains why India is building systems around fitness testing.
The NITI report says MoRTH has worked to create a scientific basis for testing vehicle fitness through Automated Testing Stations rather than deciding only by years of usage. Once a vehicle reaches end-of-life, MoRTH has enabled the creation of RVSFs to dispose of ELVs in an environmentally sound way while recovering economic value.
This means the future of vehicle retirement will likely depend more on:
That is why the safest step is to check eligibility instead of guessing.
NITI Aayog’s projection signals that more vehicles will enter the retirement pipeline. As volumes rise, delays can happen if owners are not prepared.
NITI Aayog’s ELV projections are not only about pollution control. They also point to the economic value hidden in old vehicles.
Old vehicles contain recoverable materials such as:
Scrap value usually depends on:
| Factor | Why It Matters | |
|---|---|---|
| Vehicle weight | Heavier vehicles often contain more recoverable material | |
| Material recovery | Steel, aluminum, and copper influence value | |
| Vehicle condition | Missing parts or heavy damage can reduce value | |
| Current scrap market rate | Metal prices change over time | |
| Pickup and logistics | Non-running vehicles may cost more to move | |
| Documentation status | Clean documents make the process smoother |
Advice
Ask for clarity before handover:
The RVSF rules require the registered scrapper to digitally remit or pay the agreed consideration by account payee check and obtain a receipt for record.
The report does not only talk about vehicle numbers. It also points to infrastructure gaps.
For example, one table in the NITI report estimates an India-level vehicle scrapping population of 45,61,017, with a requirement of 227 RVSFs against 178 RVSFs, leaving a gap of 49.
The report also highlights that RVSFs were concentrated in northern states such as Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, while other regions had limited coverage.
For vehicle owners, this means access to formal scrapping may be easier in some locations and slower in others.
This is why people search for:
A reliable network-led approach can reduce owner confusion, especially when the nearest RVSF, pickup route and document process are not obvious.
NITI Aayog’s projection is not meant to scare vehicle owners. It is a planning signal.
India will need:
For owners, the message is clear: vehicle scrapping should be treated as a documented retirement process, not a casual sale.
If your vehicle is old, unfit, frequently breaking down, no longer legally usable, or too expensive to maintain, start checking its retirement pathway early.
Mariinox operates as a private vehicle-scrapping brand that helps owners access a network of Registered Vehicle Scrapping Facilities authorised under the 2021 Rules.
This means Mariinox’s role is to help make the process easier for vehicle owners by supporting the following:
The facility-level authorisation sits with the RVSFs. Mariinox helps owners move through that authorised network in a more guided and practical way.
NITI Aayog’s report estimates that India had around 10 million ELVs in 2020, nearly 23 million by the end of 2025, and may reach close to 50 million by 2030. These are planning projections, not a live count.
ELV means End-of-Life Vehicle. It generally refers to a vehicle that is no longer validly registered, has been declared unfit, has had registration cancelled, has been ordered by a court, or has been self-declared as waste by the legitimate owner under the relevant rules.
India is focusing on vehicle scrapping because old and unfit vehicles create safety, pollution and waste-management concerns. Formal scrapping also helps recover valuable materials such as steel and supports circular economy goals.
Mariinox is a privately owned vehicle-scrapping brand that manages and operates a network of RVSFs. The RVSFs are the facilities authorised under the applicable vehicle scrapping rules.
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